Egypt’s Historic Vote is Underway!

At long last, voting is underway in Egypt!!! Citizens queued from early hours to vote for the first president since overthrowing Hosni Mubarak in February 2011. It’s been a tumultuous road to get to this day, but even from thousands of miles away I can sense the excitement of my Egyptian friends and family, many of whom voted today for the first time in their lives. I happen to be a junkie of political cartoons and have been collecting many along the way to Election Day.

Here are a couple I wanted to share. (I will be writing an editorial on the election in a few days when we have a better indication of how the people voted).

Which one is your favorite?!! (I think the one of Obama is my favorite!)

 

Al Jazeera’s (R)Evolution?

Here’s a study I was pleased to contribute to a new-ish e-zine called Jadaliyya which focuses on Arab affairs.

by Vivian Salama

Jadaliyya (click here for original link)

In March of 2011, an unusually forthright editorial by an anonymous writer made its way into The Peninsula Qatar, an English language daily bankrolled by a member of the emirate’s ruling family. At the time of publication, protesters had already toppled the presidents of Tunisia and Egypt, uprisings were in full swing in Libya and Yemen, and in the Persian Gulf, Bahrainis were gearing up for what would prove to be a bloody battle, only days after the op-ed ran.

“Businesses and institutions are treated as ‘holy cows,’” the author wrote in the editorial, entitled “Why are we so timid?”

“What essentially ails the Qatari media (English and Arabic-language newspapers) is the absence of a comprehensive law that specifies its role in a clear-cut way and seeks to protect it against the people and interests opposed to free expression or those who cannot appreciate criticism,” the op-ed read.

It was at about the same time that this editorial ran that Al-Jazeera Arabic, the renowned television network that essentially put Qatar on the map, started facing a dilemma. The network has found it increasingly difficult to distance itself from the growing political ambitions of its patron, Qatar, particularly as it is kept alive by the one hundred million dollars it receives annually from the Qatari government. Moreover, the wave of information now available to the masses via the Internet and satellite television has exposed the gaps in its reporting of issues that do not fall in line with the government’s agenda, while also highlighting its biases in the various uprisings. (more…)

Bahrain: So far, yet so near

Here in NYC my eyes are on Bahrain this week as it commemorates one year since deadly protests rocked the tiny Gulf Kingdom, sparking a controversial decision by Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council troops to roll on in and save the day. Hundreds of doctors/medics/nurses were arrested that day and given harsh sentences by Bahraini courts for treating political dissidents, the courts ruling that it made them accomplices. Reuters reported today that the Bahraini courts are now looking to drop some of those sentences. All the while, streets are still patrolled by security forces, especially in the predominantly Shia villages, and many Sunnis across the country display photographs of Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah in offices, on their desks and at their homes, revering him as a hero for his decision to save them from Shia protesters, who Bahrain’s government claim are supported by Iran. Bahrain is home to the U.S. Fifth Fleet so all eyes in Washington are eagerly hoping for a solution — preferably one that does not involve them. The US provides million in weapons and training to the Saudi Arabian government each year.

Ban on Male Sales Clerks in Saudi Lingerie Shops is Small Step for Womenkind

While this ban on male sales clerks in lingerie shops has been looming for quite some time, it is really a fascinating sign of the increasing empowerment of women in the kingdom, in this case, as they push for more jobs and more rights. (Although perhaps a male sales clerk would have better perspective on what to buy!) Booz and Co. estimates that female unemployment in Saudi Arabia stands at more than 26 percent – four times higher than the rate of male unemployment. Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah has tried since the start of the Arab Spring to introduce new reforms, both economic and social, to the kingdom to appease citizens….Last September, he said that women would be granted the right to run for elections and vote for members of the consultative shura council (although they were not allowed to vote in the 2011 election, which came days after this edict). While folks in the West may regard these changes as smallscale, it is a big leap for the kingdom. (After all, the joke goes, who will drive women to the polling stations since women in the kingdom are forbidden to drive?)

Until recently only men were allowed to work in Saudi lingerie shops

Women only to work in Saudi Arabia lingerie shops

By Emily Buchanan

BBC world affairs correspondent

A law allowing only women to work in lingerie shops in Saudi Arabia is coming into force.

Campaigners hope this will end decades of awkwardness in the Islamic kingdom where women have always been served by male shop assistants. The heated issue of the total lack of female shop workers in Saudi Arabia has simmered for years. Many Saudi women say they have felt particularly uncomfortable buying their lingerie from men.

Female campaigners recently increased the pressure for change through a Facebook campaign and a boycott of lingerie stores. Now King Abdullah’s royal decree finally comes into effect, banning male staff from selling female underwear.

“It’s about time, it’s been a long struggle and the authorities have finally come to their senses,” says Radio Jeddah journalist Samar Fatany. (click here to read more…)

 

Yemen’s Saleh Signs GCC Agreement; Basindwa Named Interim Prime Minister

An eventful week for my friends in Yemen who have worked tirelessly this past year covering the Yemeni Spring. Just when we thought President Ali Abdullah Saleh would continue his song and dance to avoid signing an Arab Gulf-brokered agreement, he did so November 23 in Riyadh, the opposition by his side. Today, prominent opposition figure Mohammed Basindwa was named interim Prime Minister ahead of elections scheduled for February 21.

The first step now is for Saleh to stick to his promise, hand over power , and get-a-steppin. Yemen’s economy, which was already on the brink of collapse before the revolution kicked off, is paralyzed and the country cannot afford any further delays to the long and difficult road toward recovery. (The International Monetary Fund said last month that Yemen’s economy will shrink by 2.5% this year and by 0.5% in 2012)

From a security perspective, the breakdown of law and order has also given extremist groups ample breathing room to go about their business. The sooner a transition takes place — with the rather optimistic assumption that it goes smoothly — the sooner issues like the economy and security can be addressed.

For now, we wait and see whether Saleh will, indeed, take his final bow as he has vowed. Since it’s likely that Saleh makes very few moves without a nod of approval from Saudi Arabia and the US, it’s important that both countries continue exert pressure on him to expedite the transition and step down once and for all. GOOD LUCK, YEMEN!!

THANK YOU FOR PLAYING. GOODBYE.

RELATED ARTICLES I WROTE:

Al-Qaeda’s American Agent Said to Be Killed by U.S. Drone

Saleh Calls for Yemen Elections as Violence Against Protesters Intensifies

Yemen Shortages Worsen as Street Violence Leaves Locals Searching for Food

Yemen is “Collapsing” Amid Stalemate, Former Premier Nuaman Says

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Sultan Dies

By Glen Carey and Vivian Salama

Oct. 23, 2011

Bloomberg - Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Al Saud has died, setting in motion succession plans for the world’s largest oil exporter.

Prince Nayef, born in 1934, is the most likely candidate for the crown prince position. King Abdullah, who is 87, underwent surgery earlier this month to relieve back pain after traveling to the U.S. in November for three months of medical care.

Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Al Saud

The Saudis will want to convey a “message of continuity in terms of their economic policies, and reiterate their commitment to oil market stability at a time of global uncertainty and OPEC divisions,” Jarmo Kotilaine, chief economist at Jeddah-based National Commercial Bank, said in a telephone interview. “There are certain policies that they have agreed on over the last few years and months, and they won’t change this.”

Saudi Arabia increased oil supply to help meet rising demand after exports from Libya collapsed during the uprising against Muammar Qaddafi. The kingdom failed in June to reach an agreement with other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to boost production quotas. It also announced $130 billion in social and housing spending after popular movements toppled leaders in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya this year.

Koran Verses

Saudi state television announced the death of Sultan, who is also minister of defense and aviation, then began playing verses from the Koran, as is the custom. The prince was born in Riyadh in 1928, according to the Saudi Embassy in Washington, and was heir apparent to the throne. He will be buried in an unmarked grave, as stipulated by the Sunni Wahabbi version of Islam.

Sultan died “outside the kingdom after suffering an illness,” the Royal Court said in a statement posted on the official Saudi Press Agency website. “Prayer will be held at Imam Turki Bin Abdullah Mosque in Riyadh after Asr prayer on Tuesday.”  (Click here to read more…)

Al-Qaeda’s American-Born Agent Al-Awlaki Killed in Yemen

The bad guys are dropping like flies this year…!!

By Mohammed Hatem and Vivian Salama

Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) — Anwar al-Awlaki, a U.S.-born Islamic cleric who masterminded the attempted bombing of a Detroit-bound airplane in 2009 with explosives hidden in underwear, has been killed in Yemen, the Defense Ministry said.

A U.S. government official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, confirmed al-Awlaki’s death. Al-Awlaki was targeted and killed 8 kilometers (5 miles) from the town of Khashef in the province of Jawf, the Yemeni foreign press office said in an e-mailed statement today. Intelligence services say he inspired a shooting rampage that killed 13 people last year at an army base in Fort Hood, Texas.

Al-Awlaki is identified by the Office of Foreign Assets Control list of “specially designated nationals” as a 40-year- old native of Las Cruces, New Mexico, with dual U.S. and Yemeni citizenship. Last year, President Barack Obama approved an order making him the first American ever to be placed on the Central Intelligence Agency’s hit list.

“He is an excellent role model for what al-Qaeda wants its recruits to be in terms of English language, having exposure to the United States or the West, and adhering to the doctrine of al-Qaeda,” said Theodore Karasik, director of research at the Dubai-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis.

Yemen’s government is under considerable strain following almost nine months of anti-government protests aimed at toppling President Ali Abdullah Saleh, Karasik said.

‘International Fame’

Al-Awlaki reportedly survived an attack by a U.S. drone in Yemen in May, according to Arabiya television, which cited a member of his tribe. He was an avid blogger and used the Internet to communicate with followers around the world, something that “propelled him to international fame,” IHS Global Insight analysts Gala Riani and Jeremy Binnie said today.

Obama, speaking at the start of a swearing-in ceremony for the new chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Army General Martin Dempsey, in Fort Meyer, Virginia, called al-Awlaki’s death a “major blow” against al-Qaeda that “marks another significant milestone in the effort to defeat al-Qaeda and its affiliates.”

U.K. Foreign Secretary William Hague said in an e-mailed statement that countries must “keep up the pressure on Al-Qaeda and its allies and remain vigilant to the threat we face.”

Boost for Obama

Al-Awlaki’s death follows that of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, killed on May 2 in a U.S. raid on an Islamabad, Pakistan suburb.

“If an unmanned vehicle killed the militant, it will have offered an immediate return on Obama’s recent decision to increase the use of UAV’s in Yemen,” Riani and Binnie wrote in an e-mailed report. “These foreign and security credentials are likely to boost Obama’s bid of re-election next year.”

Pakistani-American Samir Khan, an al-Qaeda militant living in Yemen, died in the same attack that killed al-Awlaki, Yemeni state-run Saba news agency reported, citing an unidentified security official.

Yemen, bin Laden’s ancestral home, was the site of a 2000 attack on the USS Cole that killed 17 U.S. sailors. Since the start of anti-government protests inspired by uprisings that toppled the leaders of Egypt and Tunisia this year, concerns about the deterioration of security in Yemen have grown. Former U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said in April that he saw Saleh’s possible fall as a “real problem.”

Al-Qaeda Offshoots

In the decade since the Sept. 11 attacks on the U.S. that killed almost 3,000 people at the World Trade Center in New York City, the Pentagon just outside Washington and a field in Shanksville, Pennsylvania, al-Qaeda offshoots have sprung up around the Islamic world, from the Maghreb and sub-Saharan Africa to Iraq and the Arabian peninsula.

An Obama administration official said al-Awlaki directed Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, who is accused of trying to blow up a U.S. jetliner in December 2009 with explosives hidden in his underpants. Al-Awlaki instructed Abdulmutallab to detonate the device over U.S. airspace to maximize casualties, the official said. He also sought to use weapons of mass destruction, including cyanide and ricin, to attack Westerners, the U.S. official said.

The threat posed by al-Qaeda’s Yemen branch was further highlighted last October when two parcel bombs sent from the country to U.S. synagogues were seized in the U.K. and Dubai. The bombing attempts, in which devices were concealed in printer cartridges, prompted the U.S. and European countries to bar flights or cargo from Yemen.

Body Bombs

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the Yemen-based group, has been examining how to develop body bombs stitched into a terrorist’s belly, breasts or buttocks, Seth Jones, a senior political scientist for the RAND Corp., a Santa Monica, California-based policy research organization, said in a July 18 interview.

Yemen, which gets about $300 million a year in security and humanitarian assistance from the U.S., stepped up operations against al-Qaeda after the parcel-bomb attempts, including air strikes targeting the group’s camps. Military aid to Yemen includes Huey helicopters, Hummer vehicles and night-vision goggles, the Pentagon said in August 2010.

Given al-Awlaki’s popularity, revenge attacks may be carried out in the U.S. and Yemen, IHS analysts Riani and Binnie wrote. “His death will likely be considered a victory for both governments,” they said.

–With assistance from Massoud A. Derhally in Beirut, Lebanon, and Margaret Talev and Roger Runningen in Washington. Editors: Jennifer M. Freedman, Karl Maier

Abu Dhabi’s Spending on Soccer and Skyscrapers Masks Slower Times at Home

By Vivian Salama - Sep 21, 2011

Bloomberg — Ramy Kaddourah got the keys to his apartment in Abu Dhabi’s Raha Beach development two years late as the boom in the United Arab Emirates capital started to wane.

“Everyone got really excited about the plans to build up Abu Dhabi, then out of nowhere everything came to a stop,” said Kaddourah, 31, who runs a local private hospital and invests in property to rent. “If this can happen here, I don’t want to imagine what’s happening in the rest of the world.”

Abu Dhabi internationally is the oil-rich emirate spending billions of petrodollars on English soccer team Manchester City, the iconic Chrysler Building in New York and London’s Gatwick Airport. Yet that image is masking pressure at home as the government supports its six neighboring emirates while financing a $500 billion development plan.

In a year that saw uprisings in almost a dozen Arab countries, citizens in the U.A.E. will head to the polls for only the second time in the country’s 40-year history on Sept. 24 to choose members of a council that will advise the sheikhs in control. In the background are deteriorating infrastructure and rising unemployment in the northern emirates and an end to the breakneck investment in Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

“We’re starting to see chinks in the armor,” Christopher Davidson, author of “Power and Politics in the Persian Gulf Monarchies.” “The bottom line is they can’t keep distributing the wealth to an ever-growing, ever-developing population.” (click here to read more…)

Yemen Shortages Worsen as Street Violence Leaves Locals Searching for Food

By Vivian Salama and Mohammed Hatem

Bloomberg

Click here to see original

Safiah Hussein al-Raimi stood for hours outside a store in Yemen’s capital, Sana’a, for five straight days to buy a tank of cooking gas to prepare food for her husband and four children. She left empty handed each time.

“Life is becoming hell here and we can’t afford it,” al- Raimi, 43, said as she lined up during her fifth attempt. “We have no gas, no power, not enough food.”

As President Ali Abdullah Saleh clings to power and Yemen edges closer to civil war, the country has become paralyzed by shortages of fuel, bread, sugar and milk. Power cuts, which were the source of riots in the south last year, are now commonplace across the country, already the Arab world’s poorest and a base for al-Qaeda terrorist activity.

With the wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East in its fifth month, the issue of how long Saleh’s regime will last in Yemen is being compounded by the question of what would be left of the country should he be ousted.

“Yemen’s economy is already at a crisis point,” said Will Picard, director of the Yemen Peace Project, a U.S.-based group. “No one is earning money, save the gasoline sellers, arms dealers, and foreign journalists.”

More Violence

Gunmen from Yemen’s most influential tribe clashed on May 24 with security forces loyal to Saleh, 68, in Sana’a, a day after he refused to sign an accord to give up power.

Dozens were killed or wounded in an assault on the home of tribal chief Sheikh Sadeq al-Ahmar, said Sheikh Saleh al- Mihjani, a member of the tribe. The Interior Ministry said that 14 policemen were killed, 29 others wounded and two are missing.

Shortages of cooking gas and petrol are being reported across the country, and cars are often turned away as they try to refuel. The shelves at local supermarkets are increasingly barren, with basic food items marketed up amid low stock.

The price of a 50 kilogram (110 pound) sack of sugar jumped 22 percent to 11,000 rials ($51.50) at al-Raimi’s local grocery store since the protests escalated in February.

Yemen already faces a severe water shortage, with the World Bank forecasting that Sana’a will be the first capital city to run out of water by 2025. More than half the country’s population of 23 million is under 20 years old and about 40 percent of the people live on the equivalent of less than $2 a day, according to the United Nations.

Bad Shape

Oil accounts for 60 percent of government revenue and 90 percent of exports, the International Monetary Fund said in a report on April 8. Oil reserves are expected to be depleted within a decade, the Washington-based organization said.

Saleh said yesterday that the economy is “not in good shape.” Industry and Trade Minister Hisham Sharaf said the protests cost Yemen $4 billion and a growing budget deficit, now expected to reach $3 billion, threatens to destroy the country.

“The government is running out of money,” Abdul Ghani Aryani, an independent political analyst, said in a telephone interview from Sana’a. “The deficit is now close to half the national budget and as a consequence there isn’t enough foreign exchange to import food stuffs.”

The country postponed the sale of a 25 billion-rial Islamic bond indefinitely as a result of the political unrest, Kamal Al- Rabie, general manager of the central bank’s Islamic unit, said in an interview on May 17.

Black Markets

Black markets are burgeoning across Yemen as people look to profit from the shortages. Khalid Saleh, a supermarket owner in Sana’a, said he’s losing business by the day and revenue has fallen 30 percent since the uprisings began. Al-Raimi said she can’t afford the marked up prices.

“I bought a cooking machine that works on electricity but it’s impossible since power goes off four times a day, each time for three or four hours,” she said.

Yemenis struggled to make ends meet before anti-government protests seeking to topple Saleh deepened the economic crisis. Demonstrators, like their counterparts in Libya and Syria, are demanding an end to corruption, and more jobs and freedom.

The difference in Yemen is that Saleh’s opposition is fragmented along tribal lines, posing the biggest challenge to the country since north and south were unified in 1990. Saleh said yesterday that recent violent threatened civil war and accused al-Qaeda of inciting protests.

“Every day Saleh stays on the throne is another day that Yemen’s already non-existent wealth is divvied up among his allies-for-hire,” Picard said by e-mail on May 23. “Economic recovery of any kind would be impossible given that fact.”

Bin Laden

A U.S. ally and the ancestral home of Osama bin Laden, Saleh also struggled to quell the threat of terrorists. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the Yemen-based branch of the group, said in a May 10 statement that it would avenge bin Laden’s death in a Pakistan raid on his hideout by U.S. forces.

This week, prospects for peace grew dimmer after the six- nation Gulf Cooperation Council abandoned efforts to broker an agreement between the country’s political parties that would pave the way for a transition of power in Yemen.

Saleh, who reiterated yesterday that he would be willing to sign the agreement, earlier called the deal a “coup on constitutional legitimacy.” Anti-government protesters maintain the only acceptable solution is for Saleh to leave immediately.

“Outside investors and foreign donors will not put a penny into this country if things continue to looks so unstable,” Mustafa Alani, director of security and terrorism research at the Gulf Research Center, said by telephone from Dubai. “These problems will not go away with a magic stick.”

Arab Grievances

The grievances of Yemenis are similar to those of young people across the Arab world, though regional and sectarian.

Separatists claim the government discriminates against southerners, claiming the north seizes the proceeds of Yemen’s southern oil reserves for its own purposes. Shiite Houthi rebels have also been battling the government, claiming discrimination.

Saudi Arabia sends about $1 billion a year to Yemen in an attempt to keep the country “contained” and buy tribal support, according to Alani. The U.S. gives Yemen $300 million a year mainly in military aid.

“The Yemeni government has been mismanaged for more than three decades so there is no shortage of things that have to be done and quite quickly,” Gregory Johnsen, a Yemen expert at Princeton University, said by telephone from Cairo. “One of the main things is job creation but that can’t be done over night.”

The IMF said on April 27 that aid talks with the government of Yemen are on hold until there is greater stability. While unemployment in Yemen stood at 15 percent in 2008, the rate for youths between 15 and 24 years old climbed to 52.9 percent that year, UN figures show.

In the line for cooking fuel in Sana’a, al-Raimi is itching to get back to her kids at home, though she is unsure what kind of meal she’ll be able to prepare.

“I’m not able to cook for them,” al-Raimi said. “We just need the basics to live and we are not able to get them.”

Gulf Rulers Welcoming Arab Democracy Anywhere But Home May Store Up Unrest

By Alaa Shahine and Vivian Salama

Bloomberg (click here to view original)

Persian Gulf rulers say they understand that this year’s wave of pro-democracy uprisings has changed the Middle East. So far, they haven’t allowed it to change their own countries.

(l to r) Bin Ali, Saleh, Qaddafi, Mubarak

None of the region’s monarchies has taken steps to broaden political participation that match the spending pledges they have offered since the start of the unrest that toppled Tunisia’s Zine El Abidine Ben Ali andEgypt’s Hosni Mubarak. Instead, the rhetoric about a new era in the Arab world, and the cash handouts for homes and social security, have been accompanied by police repression.Protests have already reached Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait and the eastern province of Saudi Arabia this year. The reluctance of the Gulf Arab leaders, who control about two-fifths of the world’s oil, to loosen their grip on power may leave more of them vulnerable to the wave of unrest that has already pushed crude prices up more than 20 percent.“What we have learned from the uprisings in general, and from Tunisia and Egypt in particular, is that it’s really a matter of when,” said Shadi Hamid, director of research at Brookings Institution’s Doha Center, in a telephone interview. “Autocracies don’t last forever.”Oman’s Foreign Minister Yusuf Bin Alawi Bin Abdullah told Arab counterparts in Cairo last month that regional leaders need “new thinking” to deal with the “Arab renaissance.” In Abu Dhabi, then-GCC Secretary-General Abdul Rahman Al-Attiyah said that “political participation has become a key demand for development.”

‘Hydrocarbon Dictatorships’

Qatar’s ruler, Sheikh Hamad Bin Khalifa Al Thani, said in February that change was coming to the region and that Europe shouldn’t support “hydrocarbon dictatorships” in return for economic benefits, according to Al Sharq newspaper. He didn’t say which countries fall into that category.Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the other three Gulf Cooperation Council members are listed as authoritarian regimes in the 2010 Democracy Index of the Economist Intelligence Unit.The region’s leaders must convert ideas about change into concrete steps that will “improve the relationship between the state and the people,” said Prince Turki Al-Faisal, former Saudi ambassador to the U.S. “We have to change words into actions, actions that are arduous,” he said in a lecture in Abu Dhabi March 21.Some countries have begun to act. Sultan Qaboos of Oman agreed last month to boost the powers of the nation’s consultative council; the United Arab Emirates announced Sept. 24 elections to the Federal National Council, an advisory body; Saudi Arabia said it will hold municipal elections in September, while backtracking from earlier signals that women would be allowed to vote.

Saudi ‘Counter-Revolution’

Those measures, though, don’t involve real transfers of power, Hamid said. Repression has been a more typical response, with Saudi Arabia as “the leader of the Arab counter- revolution,” he said. “They are fighting change tooth and nail.”Saudi Arabia’s Information Ministry declined to comment and no one was available to comment at the Saudi Foreign Ministry or the U.A.E.’s federal government or Federal National Council, in response to repeated phone calls over two days.The prospect of unrest spreading to the world’s biggest oil exporter drove the benchmark Saudi stock index into a 13-day losing streak through March 5, the longest since 1996. Crude for May delivery rose above $112 a barrel last week, the highest since September 2008.

‘Not Very Worried’

The political upheaval in the Middle East has left markets “pricing in an element of uncertainty,” said Arthur Hanna, an industry managing director at Accenture Plc.Saudi oil wealth will help it escape the wave of unrest even though unemployment is high and civil rights limited, said Kai Stukenbrock of Standard & Poor’s. “We are not very worried about that scenario,” Stukenbrock, S&P’s director of sovereign ratings for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, said March 7.Simon Henry, chief financial officer at Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA), also backed the kingdom to navigate through the political tensions. “It has the resources, it has the established capability to handle some of the unrest it may face,” Henry said on March 8.One risk to Saudi stability is the succession to King Abdullah, who turns 87 this year, Henry said. Crown Prince Sultan is also in his 80s. Next in line is Prince Nayef, the septuagenarian interior minister who filled central Riyadh with police to block a planned demonstration March 11, after rallies by Shiite Muslims in the oil-producing eastern provinces.

Bahrain Crackdown

Saudi rulers offered asylum to Ben Ali, backed Mubarak before his ouster, and sent troops to Bahrain to support a crackdown by Sunni royals that has left more than 20 protesters dead, mostly from the country’s Shiite majority.The violence in Bahrain showed unrest can be expensive even when it doesn’t lead to regime change. It pushed borrowing costs more than 150 basis points higher and Bahrain’s credit rating at Standard & Poor’s three steps lower, and dented efforts to compete with Dubai as the region’s business hub.Qatar and the U.A.E. both sent troops to Bahrain to help the government quell protests. InLibya, they are on the opposition’s side, backing a U.S.-led military campaign to help the rebels fighting Muammar Qaddafi. Qatar will “look at” the possibility of providing defense equipment to the insurgents, Prime Minister Hamad bin Jasim Al-Thani said yesterday.

‘Digging In Heels’

Dubai police on April 8 arrested Ahmed Mansour, a human rights campaigner, promptingHuman Rights Watch to criticize the U.A.E. for “digging in its heels” against democratic reforms. Two more activists, including an economics professor at the Abu Dhabi branch of France’s Sorbonne university, were arrested in the next two days. In Oman, two people have been killed as police broke up protest rallies.Saudi Arabia has also led the spending spree. King Abdullah ordered $128 billion of measures, including $90 billion on house-building and home loans, that will help the economy grow 6.6 percent this year, Standard Chartered Plc estimates.“The enormity of the stimulus package will help the region overall,” as it’s too much for the Saudi economy to absorb alone, and reduce the risk of civil unrest, Said Hirsh at London-based Capital Economics said in a March 21 report.GCC spending is another reason to expect high oil prices, according to John Sfakianakis, chief economist at Bank Saudi Fransi. Saudi Arabia needs a price of at least $80 per barrel, higher than previous breakeven figures, to finance its budget, he calculated.

‘Money Lying Around’

The GCC has promised $10 billion apiece to Bahrain and Oman to help assuage protesters. The U.A.E. allocated $1.6 billion for water and infrastructure projects in northern emirates that lag behind Dubai and Abu Dhabi.Spending conceived as a way of avoiding political change may end up fuelling popular demands, said Christopher Davidson, author of “Power and Politics in the Persian Gulf Monarchies.”

“You have the people in Saudi Arabia, for example, now asking: ‘If all that money was lying around all this time, why wasn’t it used on us earlier?’,” Davidson said. “These rulers are just reacting to the events around them, and their citizens know it.”