Mubarak, Adly Sentenced to Life for Protester Deaths

I took this photo at a protest in Cairo in 2006. Today, Egypt’s former President Hosni Mubarak and former Interior Minister Habib El-Adly (in this photo) were handed life sentences in connection with protester deaths last year. The court found no evidence to convict Mubarak’s sons, Alaa and Gamal, or any of El-Adly’s former aids. A historic day for Egypt indeed. Alaa and Gamal still face charges on insider trading.

Photo by Vivian Salama (Cairo/May 2006)

I’m heading to Egypt in a week to cover the presidential election. Looking forward to witnessing history again in “Oum el Donia.”

Egypt’s Historic Vote is Underway!

At long last, voting is underway in Egypt!!! Citizens queued from early hours to vote for the first president since overthrowing Hosni Mubarak in February 2011. It’s been a tumultuous road to get to this day, but even from thousands of miles away I can sense the excitement of my Egyptian friends and family, many of whom voted today for the first time in their lives. I happen to be a junkie of political cartoons and have been collecting many along the way to Election Day.

Here are a couple I wanted to share. (I will be writing an editorial on the election in a few days when we have a better indication of how the people voted).

Which one is your favorite?!! (I think the one of Obama is my favorite!)

 

Al Jazeera’s (R)Evolution?

Here’s a study I was pleased to contribute to a new-ish e-zine called Jadaliyya which focuses on Arab affairs.

by Vivian Salama

Jadaliyya (click here for original link)

In March of 2011, an unusually forthright editorial by an anonymous writer made its way into The Peninsula Qatar, an English language daily bankrolled by a member of the emirate’s ruling family. At the time of publication, protesters had already toppled the presidents of Tunisia and Egypt, uprisings were in full swing in Libya and Yemen, and in the Persian Gulf, Bahrainis were gearing up for what would prove to be a bloody battle, only days after the op-ed ran.

“Businesses and institutions are treated as ‘holy cows,’” the author wrote in the editorial, entitled “Why are we so timid?”

“What essentially ails the Qatari media (English and Arabic-language newspapers) is the absence of a comprehensive law that specifies its role in a clear-cut way and seeks to protect it against the people and interests opposed to free expression or those who cannot appreciate criticism,” the op-ed read.

It was at about the same time that this editorial ran that Al-Jazeera Arabic, the renowned television network that essentially put Qatar on the map, started facing a dilemma. The network has found it increasingly difficult to distance itself from the growing political ambitions of its patron, Qatar, particularly as it is kept alive by the one hundred million dollars it receives annually from the Qatari government. Moreover, the wave of information now available to the masses via the Internet and satellite television has exposed the gaps in its reporting of issues that do not fall in line with the government’s agenda, while also highlighting its biases in the various uprisings. (more…)

Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood Woos Washington

Look who’s visiting Washington!!

Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood Woos Washington

By Vivian Salama

The Daily Beast

Click here for original story

There was once a time when U.S. officials shunned Arab Islamist parties, frowned on their election victories, and denied them U.S. visas. But times are changing.

Delegates from Egypt’s Freedom and Justice Party, a group affiliated to the Muslim Brotherhood, are in   Washington for their first official visit since Hosni Mubarak was toppled last year. Only days after announcing their party’s candidate in the first presidential election since the revolution, the visiting delegates have met with members of Congress and White House officials and held public discussions at Georgetown University and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Outlawed under the Mubarak regime, members of the Muslim Brotherhood and more hard-line Salafist parties have emerged, not surprisingly, as a powerful force in the Egyptian elections, thwarting the secular groups that are believed to have been the drivers of last year’s revolution. As a group that founded itself on the principles of grassroots activism, the Muslim Brotherhood has long resonated with the people of Egypt, where at many as 30 percent of the population lives below the poverty line, according to the United Nations.

The delegates sent to Washington were all articulate English speakers, two of whom hold doctorates from U.S. institutions. They were non-evasive, answering impassioned questions from the Georgetown audience about religious persecution and Sharia law. The message was not specifically linked to Islam. They did not criticize—or even mention—Israel. They stressed that Egypt is open for business and encouraged free trade and foreign direct investment. (more…)

Nip and Tuck Not Welcomed in Egyptian Parliament

Ay yay yay… it seems Egypt has nothing better to worry about given news of the big scandal gripping parliament this week. Anwar el-Balkimy, who belonged to Al Nour, part of the ultra-conservative Salafi group, reportedly faked a near-deadly attack to hide the fact that he went under the knife for vanity, and that those bandages in fact concealed a fresh nose job. This story, written by NY Times Cairo correspondent David Kirkpatrick, made my day. No, my week. But common people!!!! Can we PLEEEEASE remember that the country is falling apart at the seams? A large portion of the population is living under $2 a day, and the government has a lot of work to do ahead of the upcoming presidential election. I get that a politician needs to look good, but for the love of God, can you please save your surgeries for AFTER the presidential elections???

“The Protester”: A Photo Journal of the Egyptian Revolution

Thanks to TIME Magazine for recognizing the revolutionaries all over the world… I’ve been meaning to write this for quite some time but only finding the chance to do it now.

A year ago when Mohammed Bouazizi, a fruit vendor in Tunisia, burned himself out of frustration from a political system that neglected him, I was en route to Beirut ahead of the Christmas holiday and writing, mainly, about the credit crunch in the Arab Gulf states and mounting concerns that the banking system would not soon recover from the blow. Days after I returned from Beirut, my host, Rania Abouzeid, came to stay with me in Dubai in a desperate attempt to fly to Tunisia, where flights were almost entirely grounded amid an uprising across the country. It was hard to imagine then that the desperate act of this young man not only set in motion a revolution in his country, but around across the region.

Jan. 27, 2011: me and Rania Abouzeid heading to Cairo (at 3am -- ughhh!!!)

On January 14, 2011, following a month of violent protests against his rule, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali – Tunisia’s president since 1987 — was forced to flee to Saudi Arabia along with his wife and their three children.  A week later, Rania and I were on a flight to Cairo where calls for a revolution had begun to circulate on social media websites. They were days I will never forget, and with TIME Magazine’s 2011 Person of the Year issue being dedicated this year to The Protester, I want to share with you all a few memories and photos of the protesters I met in Cairo this year. (Click here to read some of my stories on the Arab Spring)

On January 27, two days after the protests officially begun, Internet and mobile phone service was completely cut off in Egypt and we were left guessing where crowds were gathering. After trying a few spots around town, Rania and I decided to go toward the Mohendiseen neighborhood near the Moustafa Mahmoud mosque. It was a good guess! About 500 protesters had gathered after Friday prayers where they came face to face with riot police chanting slogans like “The people want the end of the regime” and “Hosni Mubarak: illegitimate.”

We began to march, with the intention of going toward Tahrir Square. (Rania and I were quickly separated in the crowd and were each forced to continue reporting on our own). Weaving through side streets and alleys in the Cairo neighborhood, people watched us from balconies, throwing bottles of water, garlic and onions, and bottles of vinegar – all simply remedies for tear gas inhalation, because everyone knew what lie ahead.  The longer we marched, the more the crowd swelled, with protesters called on those people in their homes not to be afraid.

Cairo, January 27, 2011/Photo by Vivian Salama

Cairo, January 27, 2011/Photo by Vivian Salama

Jan 27: Protesters Near Moustafa Mahmoud Mosque/Photo by Vivian SalamaS

Sure enough, we were quickly confronted by tanks and soldiers firing tear gas at the crowd. I’ve never seen so much camaraderie in my life. Soldiers at a nearby military hospital threw medical masks at the protesters and pharmacists handed them out to the crowds. At one point I felt quite ill from the tear gas. A man approached from behind me and pressed a vinegar-covered mask against my mouth and nose. A nearby vendor (who probably struggles to feed his own family with the pennies he earns) emptied his refrigerator, handing out water bottles and cans of soda to the fatigued protesters.

Every where I looked, people were helping each other, helping strangers tie their masks, sharing water bottles, aiding those who were most affected by the gas.

There was one point, marching with the crowd from Mohendiseen, when we approached a major intersection and I heard roaring cheers. I jumped up on a car to see what had happened and was personally overcome by emotion. From three different directions, massive groups of protesters were approaching the intersection – the other groups coming from as far as Giza and the Nasr City. They did this without Internet or mobile phones.

Cairo, January 27, 2011/Photo by Vivian Salama

Groups of young men pushed to the front of the crowd and began to battle riot police, taking over their vehicles and chasing them away. Our group, now numbered in the hundreds of thousands, pushed slowly across the historic Qasr El Nil bridge in an attempt to move into Tahrir. There were moments when I worried that an attack by the military would trigger a stampede – we were stuffed tightly onto the bridge. But every time protesters began to push back, the young men in the crowd would grab the women in the crowd and push them against the bridge railing so to protect them from being knocked down.

Some were more prepared than others!! Cairo Jan. 27, 2011/Photo by Vivian Salama

It was a long night with protesters burning the ruling National Democratic Party headquarters and battling with soldiers in Tahrir. Riot police trucks were set on fire (and the Semiramis Hotel, where many journalists took refuge) was partially on fire for part of the evening. I was trapped in Tahrir for the night and forced to take a last minute room at the Semiramis. I woke up early the next morning to a different Cairo, where charred military tanks stood in the middle of Tahrir Square and smoke billowed from the NDP headquarters and, sadly, from the adjacent National Museum. It would take another two weeks (only!) to overthrow Hosni Mubarak but that first Friday was by far the most memorable. There is an Arabic expression that often refers to the Egyptian people as being “light blooded” (light hearted/good senses of humor). They definitely showed their spirit throughout the frustrating 19 days (and 30 years) it took to shake up their political system.

Tahrir Square, January 28, 2011/Photo by Vivian Salama

Tahrir Square, January 28, 2011/Photo by Vivian Salama

me in Tahrir (late January 2011)

I visited Bahrain in the weeks that followed and I spent a lot of time covering the uprisings in Yemen and, less so, the ongoing crisis in Syria. After years of battling misguided stereotypes of terrorism and violence, these protesters have showed the world that they desire freedom and a decent standard of living and they have the right to demand it just as those in Europe and the US demand of their governments.

The Tunisians, Egyptians and all the other citizens around the world fighting for democracy have a very long and bumpy road ahead.  The TIME Magazine Person of the Year issue questions whether there is a global tipping point for frustration. I believe what happened this year is, in large part, because of overpopulation and because of the global economic slowdown touched societies rich and poor – but toppled those that were already on the brink before markets crash. The world is smaller than ever thanks to the Internet and various technologies that allow us to share experiences with people on opposite corners of the world. As we continue to get closer, and the world, smaller, it will become impossible to distance ourselves from even the most seemingly remote events.

Cairo, January 27, 2011/Photo by Vivian Salama

The U.A.E.: 40 and Fabulous?

Abu Dhabi at 40 //Photo by Tala Al Ramahi (@journalist_tala)

 As some of you may know I just moved back to New York last week after living in the Middle East for much of the last 10 years, most recently in the United Arab Emirates, which is today celebrating its 40th anniversary. There is no doubt that the UAE has accomplished pretty spectacular things in 40 years, fueled greatly by the abundant oil wealth of Abu Dhabi, which holds more than 90 percent of the crude in the country, and about 7 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves, according to BP data.

Burj Khalifa // Photo by Vivian Salama

The country is home to the world’s tallest building, the Burj Khalifa in Dubai, one of the world’s biggest malls, the world’s largest dancing fountains (I must confess, the fountain is rather amazing), the only manmade island visible from space and one of two gold vending machines in the world!

Dubai dancing fountain // Photo by Vivian Salama

It is, undeniably, a remarkable accomplishment given that just 40 years ago the emirates, prior to unification and the discovery of oil, earned much of their income from pearl diving and exporting dates.

The pride of its citizens is something to be admired, and for weeks (even before I departed for the US), skycrapers were covered from top to bottom in lights of white, green, red and black, the colors of the UAE flag. Emiratis, the citizens of the UAE, wore scarves and jewelry with the colors of the flag, and cars were covered, literally, in photos of leaders past and present.

But a challenging road lies ahead for the UAE, particularly after this year’s events in the Middle East, where longtime dictators were forced out by popular uprisings. There is one clear advantage the UAE has over countries like Egypt, Syria, Libya and Yemen: it’s citizens are not poor. There are parts of the country that are in great need for updated infrastructure – roads, power lines, etc – but citizens are, at worst, comfortable thanks to lifetime handouts by the government. (Click here for my story Abu Dhabi’s Spending on Soccer and Skyscrapers Masks Slower Times at Home)

But citizens of the UAE are hungry for one thing: opportunities. Currently, foreigners make up about 85 percent of the country’s population – the majority hailing from countries on the Indian subcontinent. British/Western European, Canadian, Australian and South African expats hold many of the high paying white-collar positions, in SOME cases because they are better trained to do so, leaving few high profile jobs for the locals.

Emiratization, a policy now enforced by the government in many workplaces, seeks to boost Emirati employment whether by providing training and education for Emiratis, or setting quotas in certain sectors for Emirati employment. Ultimately the government is trying to prevent their own talented citizens from being lured to the West. But many critics believe that the UAE cannot afford to lose its foreign workers as they may have been the driving force for the country’s speedy success in the first place. In the meantime there is growing resentment among foreigners who, despite making up the majority of the population,  have few rights. There is no legal protection on property rights, and police, in practice, do not need a reason to stop, question or even detain people.

Another challenge is maintaining the “vision” set by the country’s founders some 40 years ago. Seldom was there a day in the UAE that I did not hear someone refer to the “vision.” Abu Dhabi and Dubai have set urban planning roadmaps for diversifying their economies away from oil and expanding certain sectors (services, real estate, alternative energy, etc). However, the global economic crisis dealt a massive blow to the once seemingly invincible UAE and its seemingly invincible real estate market. Slowly we’ve seen the country scale back, but its officials still maintain that the overall “vision” is intact and on track. We shall see.

Photo by Vivian Salama

Finally, a problem facing many of the Gulf sheikhdoms: succession. The country’s founder Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan has been dead for 7 years now but his legacy undeniably lives on. The question is whether his sons, the current President Sheikh Khalifa and Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed, can continue the vision he laid out for the country 40 years ago. Many experts I’ve spoken with believe that the vision of the two brothers has grown less cohesive, and the two have developed mini “kingdoms” – investing money in projects that are too different, both from each other and from that envisioned by their father.

The government is so private in nature (painfully so) that it’s always hard to know exactly what is going on behind the scenes. But given Dubai’s economic disaster and, more recently, Abu Dhabi’s problems, it raises a lot of questions as to who is calling the shots. The country enjoys making a splash, and it’s served them well, but if it genuinely wants to keep out of the spotlight during tougher times, it may want to adopt a more humbled approach over the next 40 years. (ie, no more $20 million hotel debut parties, ok?)

Dubai Atlantis Hotel Opening Show - December 2008

Good luck UAE. I am excited and eager to see what you have up your sleeve for the next 40 years!!

Yemen’s Saleh Signs GCC Agreement; Basindwa Named Interim Prime Minister

An eventful week for my friends in Yemen who have worked tirelessly this past year covering the Yemeni Spring. Just when we thought President Ali Abdullah Saleh would continue his song and dance to avoid signing an Arab Gulf-brokered agreement, he did so November 23 in Riyadh, the opposition by his side. Today, prominent opposition figure Mohammed Basindwa was named interim Prime Minister ahead of elections scheduled for February 21.

The first step now is for Saleh to stick to his promise, hand over power , and get-a-steppin. Yemen’s economy, which was already on the brink of collapse before the revolution kicked off, is paralyzed and the country cannot afford any further delays to the long and difficult road toward recovery. (The International Monetary Fund said last month that Yemen’s economy will shrink by 2.5% this year and by 0.5% in 2012)

From a security perspective, the breakdown of law and order has also given extremist groups ample breathing room to go about their business. The sooner a transition takes place — with the rather optimistic assumption that it goes smoothly — the sooner issues like the economy and security can be addressed.

For now, we wait and see whether Saleh will, indeed, take his final bow as he has vowed. Since it’s likely that Saleh makes very few moves without a nod of approval from Saudi Arabia and the US, it’s important that both countries continue exert pressure on him to expedite the transition and step down once and for all. GOOD LUCK, YEMEN!!

THANK YOU FOR PLAYING. GOODBYE.

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Gulf Rulers Welcoming Arab Democracy Anywhere But Home May Store Up Unrest

By Alaa Shahine and Vivian Salama

Bloomberg (click here to view original)

Persian Gulf rulers say they understand that this year’s wave of pro-democracy uprisings has changed the Middle East. So far, they haven’t allowed it to change their own countries.

(l to r) Bin Ali, Saleh, Qaddafi, Mubarak

None of the region’s monarchies has taken steps to broaden political participation that match the spending pledges they have offered since the start of the unrest that toppled Tunisia’s Zine El Abidine Ben Ali andEgypt’s Hosni Mubarak. Instead, the rhetoric about a new era in the Arab world, and the cash handouts for homes and social security, have been accompanied by police repression.Protests have already reached Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait and the eastern province of Saudi Arabia this year. The reluctance of the Gulf Arab leaders, who control about two-fifths of the world’s oil, to loosen their grip on power may leave more of them vulnerable to the wave of unrest that has already pushed crude prices up more than 20 percent.“What we have learned from the uprisings in general, and from Tunisia and Egypt in particular, is that it’s really a matter of when,” said Shadi Hamid, director of research at Brookings Institution’s Doha Center, in a telephone interview. “Autocracies don’t last forever.”Oman’s Foreign Minister Yusuf Bin Alawi Bin Abdullah told Arab counterparts in Cairo last month that regional leaders need “new thinking” to deal with the “Arab renaissance.” In Abu Dhabi, then-GCC Secretary-General Abdul Rahman Al-Attiyah said that “political participation has become a key demand for development.”

‘Hydrocarbon Dictatorships’

Qatar’s ruler, Sheikh Hamad Bin Khalifa Al Thani, said in February that change was coming to the region and that Europe shouldn’t support “hydrocarbon dictatorships” in return for economic benefits, according to Al Sharq newspaper. He didn’t say which countries fall into that category.Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the other three Gulf Cooperation Council members are listed as authoritarian regimes in the 2010 Democracy Index of the Economist Intelligence Unit.The region’s leaders must convert ideas about change into concrete steps that will “improve the relationship between the state and the people,” said Prince Turki Al-Faisal, former Saudi ambassador to the U.S. “We have to change words into actions, actions that are arduous,” he said in a lecture in Abu Dhabi March 21.Some countries have begun to act. Sultan Qaboos of Oman agreed last month to boost the powers of the nation’s consultative council; the United Arab Emirates announced Sept. 24 elections to the Federal National Council, an advisory body; Saudi Arabia said it will hold municipal elections in September, while backtracking from earlier signals that women would be allowed to vote.

Saudi ‘Counter-Revolution’

Those measures, though, don’t involve real transfers of power, Hamid said. Repression has been a more typical response, with Saudi Arabia as “the leader of the Arab counter- revolution,” he said. “They are fighting change tooth and nail.”Saudi Arabia’s Information Ministry declined to comment and no one was available to comment at the Saudi Foreign Ministry or the U.A.E.’s federal government or Federal National Council, in response to repeated phone calls over two days.The prospect of unrest spreading to the world’s biggest oil exporter drove the benchmark Saudi stock index into a 13-day losing streak through March 5, the longest since 1996. Crude for May delivery rose above $112 a barrel last week, the highest since September 2008.

‘Not Very Worried’

The political upheaval in the Middle East has left markets “pricing in an element of uncertainty,” said Arthur Hanna, an industry managing director at Accenture Plc.Saudi oil wealth will help it escape the wave of unrest even though unemployment is high and civil rights limited, said Kai Stukenbrock of Standard & Poor’s. “We are not very worried about that scenario,” Stukenbrock, S&P’s director of sovereign ratings for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, said March 7.Simon Henry, chief financial officer at Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA), also backed the kingdom to navigate through the political tensions. “It has the resources, it has the established capability to handle some of the unrest it may face,” Henry said on March 8.One risk to Saudi stability is the succession to King Abdullah, who turns 87 this year, Henry said. Crown Prince Sultan is also in his 80s. Next in line is Prince Nayef, the septuagenarian interior minister who filled central Riyadh with police to block a planned demonstration March 11, after rallies by Shiite Muslims in the oil-producing eastern provinces.

Bahrain Crackdown

Saudi rulers offered asylum to Ben Ali, backed Mubarak before his ouster, and sent troops to Bahrain to support a crackdown by Sunni royals that has left more than 20 protesters dead, mostly from the country’s Shiite majority.The violence in Bahrain showed unrest can be expensive even when it doesn’t lead to regime change. It pushed borrowing costs more than 150 basis points higher and Bahrain’s credit rating at Standard & Poor’s three steps lower, and dented efforts to compete with Dubai as the region’s business hub.Qatar and the U.A.E. both sent troops to Bahrain to help the government quell protests. InLibya, they are on the opposition’s side, backing a U.S.-led military campaign to help the rebels fighting Muammar Qaddafi. Qatar will “look at” the possibility of providing defense equipment to the insurgents, Prime Minister Hamad bin Jasim Al-Thani said yesterday.

‘Digging In Heels’

Dubai police on April 8 arrested Ahmed Mansour, a human rights campaigner, promptingHuman Rights Watch to criticize the U.A.E. for “digging in its heels” against democratic reforms. Two more activists, including an economics professor at the Abu Dhabi branch of France’s Sorbonne university, were arrested in the next two days. In Oman, two people have been killed as police broke up protest rallies.Saudi Arabia has also led the spending spree. King Abdullah ordered $128 billion of measures, including $90 billion on house-building and home loans, that will help the economy grow 6.6 percent this year, Standard Chartered Plc estimates.“The enormity of the stimulus package will help the region overall,” as it’s too much for the Saudi economy to absorb alone, and reduce the risk of civil unrest, Said Hirsh at London-based Capital Economics said in a March 21 report.GCC spending is another reason to expect high oil prices, according to John Sfakianakis, chief economist at Bank Saudi Fransi. Saudi Arabia needs a price of at least $80 per barrel, higher than previous breakeven figures, to finance its budget, he calculated.

‘Money Lying Around’

The GCC has promised $10 billion apiece to Bahrain and Oman to help assuage protesters. The U.A.E. allocated $1.6 billion for water and infrastructure projects in northern emirates that lag behind Dubai and Abu Dhabi.Spending conceived as a way of avoiding political change may end up fuelling popular demands, said Christopher Davidson, author of “Power and Politics in the Persian Gulf Monarchies.”

“You have the people in Saudi Arabia, for example, now asking: ‘If all that money was lying around all this time, why wasn’t it used on us earlier?’,” Davidson said. “These rulers are just reacting to the events around them, and their citizens know it.”

Jailbreak to Gaza Fuels Israeli Hamas Fear in Post-Mubarak Era

By Jonathan Ferziger and Vivian Salama

Click here to view original story.

The Cairo protests that dislodged President Hosni Mubarak from power had an unexpected side effect: They also helped Hassan Weshah break out of an Egyptian prison, return to his home in the Gaza Strip and prepare for fresh attacks against Israel.

“Resisting occupation is the obligation of every Palestinian,” said Weshah, 28, a member of the so-called Army of Islam who had been arrested by Egyptian forces in October for planning to infiltrate Israel’s Sinai border. “I would not abandon the resistance.”

Palestinians such as Weshah are one reason why Egypt’s newly unstable border has become a headache for Israel. A pipeline that brings in 60 percent of Israel’s gas consumption looks more vulnerable after a Feb. 5 explosion from unknown causes shut it down for at least a month. The Sinai desert, a buffer for three decades between Egypt and Israel, may require a greater Israeli military presence.

“Our preparedness along the length of the border is high,” Defense Minister Ehud Barak said after viewing military exercises at a southern military base March 1. Israel has accelerated defensive operations “so that we can be as protected as possible” on the Egyptian frontier.

Security concerns are putting downward pressure on Israeli stocks. The TA-25 benchmark index has declined 4.1 percent since the start of the year while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is down 1.6 percent. The yield on the benchmark Mimshal Shiklit bond maturing in January 2020 rose 46 basis points to 5.15 percent as the shekel declined 3.5 percent against the dollar to 3.62 in the period.

Abandoned Checkpoints

Checkpoints and security posts across Egypt were abandoned last month following a withdrawal by the police. Civilians took security into their own hands for several days before the military was deployed to restore order.

Both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer said last month that the government will probably need to raise defense spending. The country spent 7 percent of gross domestic product on defense in 2008, according to a database maintained by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, while the U.S. spent 4.3 percent and Egypt 2.3 percent.

“Let’s remember that this is a region that can change completely from today to tomorrow, not necessarily in our favor,” said retired Major-General Yaakov Amidror, former head of Israel’s National Defense College. “As a state we must look at the worst-case scenario, not just the optimistic scenarios.”

Hamas Control

The greatest security threat may be in Gaza, where Hamas seized control in 2007, a year after winning Palestinian elections, defeating forces loyal to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. Hamas is considered a terrorist organization by Israel, the U.S. and the European Union.

Hamas, which rejects peace talks with Israel and opposes the 32-year-old peace treaty between the two nations, was founded in 1987 as an offshoot from Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, the strongest opposition group during Mubarak’s presidency.

Israel and Egypt both sealed off Gaza’s borders after Hamas took over, cutting off most civilian traffic and restricting trade with the territory. Israel has maintained a ground and sea blockade around Gaza ever since.

Egypt also enforced the blockade and occasionally cracked down on tunnel smugglers from its own side of the border, though limited exports and imports have been allowed in the past year.

Open Border?

Now the Muslim Brotherhood, banned in Egypt since 1954, hopes to open Egypt’s border with Gaza and raise the price Israel pays for Egyptian gas if it enters a coalition, said Essam El-Erian, a senior member of the group.

“The whole region is about to change,” he said in an interview. “We hope that the stupid policies that neglected the fact that Hamas ran and won a democratic election will also change. It’s time to see a real assimilation of what people want.”

Candidates from the Brotherhood won 20 percent of seats in Egypt’s parliamentary elections in 2005 even though the party was officially banned and the government closed polling stations in towns were it had widespread support. Hundreds of thousands of people flocked to Cairo’s Tahrir Square a week after Mubarak’s fall to hear Yusuf al-Qaradawi, a cleric who aligns himself with the Brotherhood.

Hamas expects Egyptian policy toward Gaza to soften after the new elections, said Mustawa Sawaf, a professor of media studies at the Islamic University in Gaza who is affiliated with the group. Egypt’s ruling army council said Feb. 14 it will hand power to a democratically elected government within six months.

Free Passage Hopes

“These changes will have great influence in supporting the rights of the Palestinian people,” Sawaf said. “We hope, as residents of the Gaza Strip who are blockaded by Israel, to have free commercial passage with Egypt.”

Weshah learned about the Cairo protests from watching Egyptian television in a group room in the prison. He described a scene that night, 14 days before Mubarak’s ouster, in which inmates started banging on the walls and bars of their cells and then overpowered guards who responded to the uproar.

“It was very scary, with intensive gunfire and prisoners shot dead on the floor,” Weshah said. “We just kept running and followed some Egyptian prisoners who took us to a safe place.”

Weshah was one of nine Palestinians who made their way to Gaza after the jail break, according to interviews with them all. Another was Ayman Noufal, one of the top commanders of the Hamas militia known as the Al-Qassam Brigades. He had been held for three years. A Hamas spokesman declined to comment.

Rockets From Gaza

Palestinian militants have fired at least 30 rockets from Gaza since Feb. 1, said an Israeli army spokesman, speaking anonymously under military rules. Israeli forces have killed seven Palestinians in Gaza during the period, said Adham Abu Selmeya, emergency-services chief in the Gaza Health Ministry.

After a taxi ride from Cairo, Weshah continued north through the Sinai desert, dodging police roadblocks by walking around the barriers and then switching to a new cab. At the border town of Rafah, a smuggler guided him to a tunnel.

The desert he crossed, the demilitarized Sinai on Israel’s southern border, is becoming more dangerous. Restoration of the gas supply cut by the Feb. 5 explosion at a pipeline metering station, planned for March 4, was postponed after a shootout between “suspected terrorists” and Egyptian security forces that delayed testing on the repaired system, according to a March 3 report to the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange by Ampal-American Israel (AMPL) Corp. Ampal has a 12.5 percent stake in pipeline owner East Mediterranean Gas Co.

Ampal Chairman Yosef Maiman in a March 1 interview called the explosion a terrorist attack.

Soldiers in Sinai

The Egyptian Oil Ministry said the blast appeared to have been set off by a gas leak. Israeli National Infrastructures Minister Uzi Landau said the country must have energy security” and declined to speculate about who caused the explosion, said spokesman Chen Ben-Lulu.

The metering station is outside El-Arish, before the spot where the 100-kilometer (62-mile) pipeline splits into two branches bringing gas separately to Israel and to Jordan, Maiman spokesman Zeev Feiner said. He said the explosion was apparently set off by unidentified “terrorist elements,” declining to say how it was detonated.

The pipeline currently provides Israel with 2.5 billion cubic meters of gas a year, about $400 million worth, according to Israel Electric Corp. That is expected to rise to 7 billion cubic meters in 2014, Feiner said.

“Let’s not forget that the most important economic arrangement signed with Egypt since the peace agreement is the agreement on gas,” Landau said March 6 in an interview with Israel’s Army Radio. “When events in Egypt settle down, we hope and certainly want the supply of gas to resume.”