Egypt’s Historic Vote is Underway!

At long last, voting is underway in Egypt!!! Citizens queued from early hours to vote for the first president since overthrowing Hosni Mubarak in February 2011. It’s been a tumultuous road to get to this day, but even from thousands of miles away I can sense the excitement of my Egyptian friends and family, many of whom voted today for the first time in their lives. I happen to be a junkie of political cartoons and have been collecting many along the way to Election Day.

Here are a couple I wanted to share. (I will be writing an editorial on the election in a few days when we have a better indication of how the people voted).

Which one is your favorite?!! (I think the one of Obama is my favorite!)

 

Al Jazeera’s (R)Evolution?

Here’s a study I was pleased to contribute to a new-ish e-zine called Jadaliyya which focuses on Arab affairs.

by Vivian Salama

Jadaliyya (click here for original link)

In March of 2011, an unusually forthright editorial by an anonymous writer made its way into The Peninsula Qatar, an English language daily bankrolled by a member of the emirate’s ruling family. At the time of publication, protesters had already toppled the presidents of Tunisia and Egypt, uprisings were in full swing in Libya and Yemen, and in the Persian Gulf, Bahrainis were gearing up for what would prove to be a bloody battle, only days after the op-ed ran.

“Businesses and institutions are treated as ‘holy cows,’” the author wrote in the editorial, entitled “Why are we so timid?”

“What essentially ails the Qatari media (English and Arabic-language newspapers) is the absence of a comprehensive law that specifies its role in a clear-cut way and seeks to protect it against the people and interests opposed to free expression or those who cannot appreciate criticism,” the op-ed read.

It was at about the same time that this editorial ran that Al-Jazeera Arabic, the renowned television network that essentially put Qatar on the map, started facing a dilemma. The network has found it increasingly difficult to distance itself from the growing political ambitions of its patron, Qatar, particularly as it is kept alive by the one hundred million dollars it receives annually from the Qatari government. Moreover, the wave of information now available to the masses via the Internet and satellite television has exposed the gaps in its reporting of issues that do not fall in line with the government’s agenda, while also highlighting its biases in the various uprisings. (more…)

Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood Woos Washington

Look who’s visiting Washington!!

Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood Woos Washington

By Vivian Salama

The Daily Beast

Click here for original story

There was once a time when U.S. officials shunned Arab Islamist parties, frowned on their election victories, and denied them U.S. visas. But times are changing.

Delegates from Egypt’s Freedom and Justice Party, a group affiliated to the Muslim Brotherhood, are in   Washington for their first official visit since Hosni Mubarak was toppled last year. Only days after announcing their party’s candidate in the first presidential election since the revolution, the visiting delegates have met with members of Congress and White House officials and held public discussions at Georgetown University and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Outlawed under the Mubarak regime, members of the Muslim Brotherhood and more hard-line Salafist parties have emerged, not surprisingly, as a powerful force in the Egyptian elections, thwarting the secular groups that are believed to have been the drivers of last year’s revolution. As a group that founded itself on the principles of grassroots activism, the Muslim Brotherhood has long resonated with the people of Egypt, where at many as 30 percent of the population lives below the poverty line, according to the United Nations.

The delegates sent to Washington were all articulate English speakers, two of whom hold doctorates from U.S. institutions. They were non-evasive, answering impassioned questions from the Georgetown audience about religious persecution and Sharia law. The message was not specifically linked to Islam. They did not criticize—or even mention—Israel. They stressed that Egypt is open for business and encouraged free trade and foreign direct investment. (more…)

Bahrain: So far, yet so near

Here in NYC my eyes are on Bahrain this week as it commemorates one year since deadly protests rocked the tiny Gulf Kingdom, sparking a controversial decision by Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council troops to roll on in and save the day. Hundreds of doctors/medics/nurses were arrested that day and given harsh sentences by Bahraini courts for treating political dissidents, the courts ruling that it made them accomplices. Reuters reported today that the Bahraini courts are now looking to drop some of those sentences. All the while, streets are still patrolled by security forces, especially in the predominantly Shia villages, and many Sunnis across the country display photographs of Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah in offices, on their desks and at their homes, revering him as a hero for his decision to save them from Shia protesters, who Bahrain’s government claim are supported by Iran. Bahrain is home to the U.S. Fifth Fleet so all eyes in Washington are eagerly hoping for a solution — preferably one that does not involve them. The US provides million in weapons and training to the Saudi Arabian government each year.

“The Protester”: A Photo Journal of the Egyptian Revolution

Thanks to TIME Magazine for recognizing the revolutionaries all over the world… I’ve been meaning to write this for quite some time but only finding the chance to do it now.

A year ago when Mohammed Bouazizi, a fruit vendor in Tunisia, burned himself out of frustration from a political system that neglected him, I was en route to Beirut ahead of the Christmas holiday and writing, mainly, about the credit crunch in the Arab Gulf states and mounting concerns that the banking system would not soon recover from the blow. Days after I returned from Beirut, my host, Rania Abouzeid, came to stay with me in Dubai in a desperate attempt to fly to Tunisia, where flights were almost entirely grounded amid an uprising across the country. It was hard to imagine then that the desperate act of this young man not only set in motion a revolution in his country, but around across the region.

Jan. 27, 2011: me and Rania Abouzeid heading to Cairo (at 3am -- ughhh!!!)

On January 14, 2011, following a month of violent protests against his rule, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali – Tunisia’s president since 1987 — was forced to flee to Saudi Arabia along with his wife and their three children.  A week later, Rania and I were on a flight to Cairo where calls for a revolution had begun to circulate on social media websites. They were days I will never forget, and with TIME Magazine’s 2011 Person of the Year issue being dedicated this year to The Protester, I want to share with you all a few memories and photos of the protesters I met in Cairo this year. (Click here to read some of my stories on the Arab Spring)

On January 27, two days after the protests officially begun, Internet and mobile phone service was completely cut off in Egypt and we were left guessing where crowds were gathering. After trying a few spots around town, Rania and I decided to go toward the Mohendiseen neighborhood near the Moustafa Mahmoud mosque. It was a good guess! About 500 protesters had gathered after Friday prayers where they came face to face with riot police chanting slogans like “The people want the end of the regime” and “Hosni Mubarak: illegitimate.”

We began to march, with the intention of going toward Tahrir Square. (Rania and I were quickly separated in the crowd and were each forced to continue reporting on our own). Weaving through side streets and alleys in the Cairo neighborhood, people watched us from balconies, throwing bottles of water, garlic and onions, and bottles of vinegar – all simply remedies for tear gas inhalation, because everyone knew what lie ahead.  The longer we marched, the more the crowd swelled, with protesters called on those people in their homes not to be afraid.

Cairo, January 27, 2011/Photo by Vivian Salama

Cairo, January 27, 2011/Photo by Vivian Salama

Jan 27: Protesters Near Moustafa Mahmoud Mosque/Photo by Vivian SalamaS

Sure enough, we were quickly confronted by tanks and soldiers firing tear gas at the crowd. I’ve never seen so much camaraderie in my life. Soldiers at a nearby military hospital threw medical masks at the protesters and pharmacists handed them out to the crowds. At one point I felt quite ill from the tear gas. A man approached from behind me and pressed a vinegar-covered mask against my mouth and nose. A nearby vendor (who probably struggles to feed his own family with the pennies he earns) emptied his refrigerator, handing out water bottles and cans of soda to the fatigued protesters.

Every where I looked, people were helping each other, helping strangers tie their masks, sharing water bottles, aiding those who were most affected by the gas.

There was one point, marching with the crowd from Mohendiseen, when we approached a major intersection and I heard roaring cheers. I jumped up on a car to see what had happened and was personally overcome by emotion. From three different directions, massive groups of protesters were approaching the intersection – the other groups coming from as far as Giza and the Nasr City. They did this without Internet or mobile phones.

Cairo, January 27, 2011/Photo by Vivian Salama

Groups of young men pushed to the front of the crowd and began to battle riot police, taking over their vehicles and chasing them away. Our group, now numbered in the hundreds of thousands, pushed slowly across the historic Qasr El Nil bridge in an attempt to move into Tahrir. There were moments when I worried that an attack by the military would trigger a stampede – we were stuffed tightly onto the bridge. But every time protesters began to push back, the young men in the crowd would grab the women in the crowd and push them against the bridge railing so to protect them from being knocked down.

Some were more prepared than others!! Cairo Jan. 27, 2011/Photo by Vivian Salama

It was a long night with protesters burning the ruling National Democratic Party headquarters and battling with soldiers in Tahrir. Riot police trucks were set on fire (and the Semiramis Hotel, where many journalists took refuge) was partially on fire for part of the evening. I was trapped in Tahrir for the night and forced to take a last minute room at the Semiramis. I woke up early the next morning to a different Cairo, where charred military tanks stood in the middle of Tahrir Square and smoke billowed from the NDP headquarters and, sadly, from the adjacent National Museum. It would take another two weeks (only!) to overthrow Hosni Mubarak but that first Friday was by far the most memorable. There is an Arabic expression that often refers to the Egyptian people as being “light blooded” (light hearted/good senses of humor). They definitely showed their spirit throughout the frustrating 19 days (and 30 years) it took to shake up their political system.

Tahrir Square, January 28, 2011/Photo by Vivian Salama

Tahrir Square, January 28, 2011/Photo by Vivian Salama

me in Tahrir (late January 2011)

I visited Bahrain in the weeks that followed and I spent a lot of time covering the uprisings in Yemen and, less so, the ongoing crisis in Syria. After years of battling misguided stereotypes of terrorism and violence, these protesters have showed the world that they desire freedom and a decent standard of living and they have the right to demand it just as those in Europe and the US demand of their governments.

The Tunisians, Egyptians and all the other citizens around the world fighting for democracy have a very long and bumpy road ahead.  The TIME Magazine Person of the Year issue questions whether there is a global tipping point for frustration. I believe what happened this year is, in large part, because of overpopulation and because of the global economic slowdown touched societies rich and poor – but toppled those that were already on the brink before markets crash. The world is smaller than ever thanks to the Internet and various technologies that allow us to share experiences with people on opposite corners of the world. As we continue to get closer, and the world, smaller, it will become impossible to distance ourselves from even the most seemingly remote events.

Cairo, January 27, 2011/Photo by Vivian Salama

Gulf Rulers Welcoming Arab Democracy Anywhere But Home May Store Up Unrest

By Alaa Shahine and Vivian Salama

Bloomberg (click here to view original)

Persian Gulf rulers say they understand that this year’s wave of pro-democracy uprisings has changed the Middle East. So far, they haven’t allowed it to change their own countries.

(l to r) Bin Ali, Saleh, Qaddafi, Mubarak

None of the region’s monarchies has taken steps to broaden political participation that match the spending pledges they have offered since the start of the unrest that toppled Tunisia’s Zine El Abidine Ben Ali andEgypt’s Hosni Mubarak. Instead, the rhetoric about a new era in the Arab world, and the cash handouts for homes and social security, have been accompanied by police repression.Protests have already reached Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait and the eastern province of Saudi Arabia this year. The reluctance of the Gulf Arab leaders, who control about two-fifths of the world’s oil, to loosen their grip on power may leave more of them vulnerable to the wave of unrest that has already pushed crude prices up more than 20 percent.“What we have learned from the uprisings in general, and from Tunisia and Egypt in particular, is that it’s really a matter of when,” said Shadi Hamid, director of research at Brookings Institution’s Doha Center, in a telephone interview. “Autocracies don’t last forever.”Oman’s Foreign Minister Yusuf Bin Alawi Bin Abdullah told Arab counterparts in Cairo last month that regional leaders need “new thinking” to deal with the “Arab renaissance.” In Abu Dhabi, then-GCC Secretary-General Abdul Rahman Al-Attiyah said that “political participation has become a key demand for development.”

‘Hydrocarbon Dictatorships’

Qatar’s ruler, Sheikh Hamad Bin Khalifa Al Thani, said in February that change was coming to the region and that Europe shouldn’t support “hydrocarbon dictatorships” in return for economic benefits, according to Al Sharq newspaper. He didn’t say which countries fall into that category.Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the other three Gulf Cooperation Council members are listed as authoritarian regimes in the 2010 Democracy Index of the Economist Intelligence Unit.The region’s leaders must convert ideas about change into concrete steps that will “improve the relationship between the state and the people,” said Prince Turki Al-Faisal, former Saudi ambassador to the U.S. “We have to change words into actions, actions that are arduous,” he said in a lecture in Abu Dhabi March 21.Some countries have begun to act. Sultan Qaboos of Oman agreed last month to boost the powers of the nation’s consultative council; the United Arab Emirates announced Sept. 24 elections to the Federal National Council, an advisory body; Saudi Arabia said it will hold municipal elections in September, while backtracking from earlier signals that women would be allowed to vote.

Saudi ‘Counter-Revolution’

Those measures, though, don’t involve real transfers of power, Hamid said. Repression has been a more typical response, with Saudi Arabia as “the leader of the Arab counter- revolution,” he said. “They are fighting change tooth and nail.”Saudi Arabia’s Information Ministry declined to comment and no one was available to comment at the Saudi Foreign Ministry or the U.A.E.’s federal government or Federal National Council, in response to repeated phone calls over two days.The prospect of unrest spreading to the world’s biggest oil exporter drove the benchmark Saudi stock index into a 13-day losing streak through March 5, the longest since 1996. Crude for May delivery rose above $112 a barrel last week, the highest since September 2008.

‘Not Very Worried’

The political upheaval in the Middle East has left markets “pricing in an element of uncertainty,” said Arthur Hanna, an industry managing director at Accenture Plc.Saudi oil wealth will help it escape the wave of unrest even though unemployment is high and civil rights limited, said Kai Stukenbrock of Standard & Poor’s. “We are not very worried about that scenario,” Stukenbrock, S&P’s director of sovereign ratings for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, said March 7.Simon Henry, chief financial officer at Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA), also backed the kingdom to navigate through the political tensions. “It has the resources, it has the established capability to handle some of the unrest it may face,” Henry said on March 8.One risk to Saudi stability is the succession to King Abdullah, who turns 87 this year, Henry said. Crown Prince Sultan is also in his 80s. Next in line is Prince Nayef, the septuagenarian interior minister who filled central Riyadh with police to block a planned demonstration March 11, after rallies by Shiite Muslims in the oil-producing eastern provinces.

Bahrain Crackdown

Saudi rulers offered asylum to Ben Ali, backed Mubarak before his ouster, and sent troops to Bahrain to support a crackdown by Sunni royals that has left more than 20 protesters dead, mostly from the country’s Shiite majority.The violence in Bahrain showed unrest can be expensive even when it doesn’t lead to regime change. It pushed borrowing costs more than 150 basis points higher and Bahrain’s credit rating at Standard & Poor’s three steps lower, and dented efforts to compete with Dubai as the region’s business hub.Qatar and the U.A.E. both sent troops to Bahrain to help the government quell protests. InLibya, they are on the opposition’s side, backing a U.S.-led military campaign to help the rebels fighting Muammar Qaddafi. Qatar will “look at” the possibility of providing defense equipment to the insurgents, Prime Minister Hamad bin Jasim Al-Thani said yesterday.

‘Digging In Heels’

Dubai police on April 8 arrested Ahmed Mansour, a human rights campaigner, promptingHuman Rights Watch to criticize the U.A.E. for “digging in its heels” against democratic reforms. Two more activists, including an economics professor at the Abu Dhabi branch of France’s Sorbonne university, were arrested in the next two days. In Oman, two people have been killed as police broke up protest rallies.Saudi Arabia has also led the spending spree. King Abdullah ordered $128 billion of measures, including $90 billion on house-building and home loans, that will help the economy grow 6.6 percent this year, Standard Chartered Plc estimates.“The enormity of the stimulus package will help the region overall,” as it’s too much for the Saudi economy to absorb alone, and reduce the risk of civil unrest, Said Hirsh at London-based Capital Economics said in a March 21 report.GCC spending is another reason to expect high oil prices, according to John Sfakianakis, chief economist at Bank Saudi Fransi. Saudi Arabia needs a price of at least $80 per barrel, higher than previous breakeven figures, to finance its budget, he calculated.

‘Money Lying Around’

The GCC has promised $10 billion apiece to Bahrain and Oman to help assuage protesters. The U.A.E. allocated $1.6 billion for water and infrastructure projects in northern emirates that lag behind Dubai and Abu Dhabi.Spending conceived as a way of avoiding political change may end up fuelling popular demands, said Christopher Davidson, author of “Power and Politics in the Persian Gulf Monarchies.”

“You have the people in Saudi Arabia, for example, now asking: ‘If all that money was lying around all this time, why wasn’t it used on us earlier?’,” Davidson said. “These rulers are just reacting to the events around them, and their citizens know it.”

Libya’s Military Spending Below Sweden’s Leaves Qaddafi Authority Deficit

Click here for original link

By Vivian Salama

March 2 (Bloomberg) — In a region with a history of rulers who strengthened their armies to keep a grip on power, Muammar Qaddafi has been doing the opposite.

Qaddafi spent an average 1.2 percent of gross domestic product on the military in the three years through 2008, the lowest in the Middle East and North Africa and also less than Sweden or Denmark, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute or Sipri, which tracks defense spending. Before it was split by an uprising that started last month, Libya’s army had 50,000 men, half of them draftees, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

The cap on army powers helped ensure Qaddafi, who gained power in a 1969 coup, didn’t lose it the same way. It also leaves Libya’s army lacking the capacity to contain civil strife and oversee a transition, as its counterparts in Egypt and Tunisia have done, or to secure production from Africa’s largest oil reserves. Military weakness also makes it harder for the U.S. and allies, who are backing the anti-Qaddafi rebels, to find interlocutors.

“Qaddafi tried to keep the military weak so they could not topple him, as he toppled King Idris,” said Paul Sullivan, a North Africa expert at the Washington-based National Defense University. The result is “a poorly trained military run by poorly trained leadership that are on the ropes, not exactly personally stable, and with a lot of extra weapons floating around.”

Rebel Control

Since anti-government protests escalated into violence two weeks ago, rebels have taken control of much of Libya and several army units defected. Crude prices have jumped more than 15 percent, hitting a 2 1/2-year high. Libyan production dropped more than half as companies such as Eni SpA and Total SA cut output, and the conflict threatened exports as workers fled.

In Benghazi, the second-biggest city, soldiers were directing traffic and stopping cars for armed Qaddafi supporters last week. On the opposition-held eastern coastal road, which passes by the tanker terminals of Ras Lanouf and el-Brega, troops flashed victory signs and passed out candies and juice.

Other units have stayed loyal, including air crews who have bombed ammunition stores to prevent weapons from getting into rebel hands.

‘Why the Splinters?’

“Why the splinters? Why the defections?” said Fawaz Gerges, a professor of Middle East politics at the London School of Economics. “It tells you that there is no cohesive institution.”

The lack of cohesion contrasts with the army’s role in Egypt and Tunisia. In both countries, the military acted as a catalyst for the removal of leaders, a key demand of opposition movements, while discouraging continued protests aimed at more far-reaching democratic change.

Egypt’s military took over from Hosni Mubarak on Feb. 11, promising elections and a new constitution. Tunisian army chief Rashid Ammar pledged to “protect the revolution.” The armies took over functions from police discredited by their links to former rulers, with soldiers guarding key buildings from ministries in Tunis to the state broadcaster in Cairo.

Libya’s military spending plunged as relations with the West improved in the past decade, according to data from Sipri and the U.S. State Department’s World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers report.

Rapprochement With West

In 2008, spending was $833 million, according to the State Department. It was down from $2 billion in 1998 and $6.85 billion in 1986, the year Libya was bombed by the U.S. in retaliation for an attack in a Berlin disco. United Nations sanctions on Libya were lifted in 1999 and the rapprochement gathered speed after 2003, when Qaddafi said he renounced terrorism and nuclear technology.

Sipri estimates average defense outlays at 4.4 percent of GDP in the three years through 1999, dropping to 1.2 percent in the period through 2008. The latter figure compares with 2.5 percent in Egypt and 8.6 percent in Saudi Arabia.

U.S. diplomats said Libya’s “aging air force” was on “full display” when a plane crashed at the Libyan Aviation Exhibition in October 2009, according to a cable from the U.S. Embassy in Tripoli that month, released by Wikileaks.org. It said the incident showed the “weaknesses of Libya’s military air fleet.”

Tribes, Sons, Mercenaries

Tribal divisions within Libya’s army may have accelerated its fragmentation. Many soldiers come from tribes such as the Warfalla and Magariha whose loyalty to Qaddafi is questionable, while the air force, dominated by Qaddafi’s native Qadhafa tribe, remains more loyal, according to Sullivan.

Qaddafi focused resources on equipment and facilities, instead of personnel and training, the IISS said. Egypt has 1 million fighters and reservists, or about 12.5 people under arms per 1,000 of population compared with 7.8 in Libya, according to the IISS study.

Money withheld from the traditional military was put into special forces led by Qaddafi’s sons Saif al-Islam, Motassim and Khamees, said Mohammed El-Katiri, an analyst at the New York- based Eurasia Group, which measures political risk. Payoffs also went to mercenaries and tribes, though the lack of transparency makes it impossible to say how much was spent, he said.

The Libyan leader “doesn’t have confidence in his own army and police,” Nouri el-Mismari, Qaddafi’s former protocol chief, said at a press conference in Paris today. “That’s why he hired the mercenaries.”

Sarkozy Contracts

Between 2005 and 2008, Libya signed about $1 billion in arms transfer agreements with Western European countries, as well as $300 million with Russia, according to the Congressional Research Service, a division of the Library of Congress.

When Qaddafi visited Nicolas Sarkozy in Paris in December 2007, an aide to the French president said talks included potential arms sales worth 4.5 billion euros ($6.2 billion).

They included 14 Rafale fighter jets, which are built by Dassault Aviation SA, as well as helicopters, ships, combat vehicles and artillery, the official said.

Talks on the sale of Rafale fighter jets never resulted in a sale, said Mathieu Durand, a spokesman for Dassault. In 2009, Libya received 100 Milan anti-tank missiles, made by a unit of European Aeronautic, Defense & Space Co. and worth 168 million euros, according to Sipri.

Who to Help?

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has held talks with European counterparts on imposing a no-fly zone over Libya, and said this week that the U.S. is willing to support anti-Qaddafi forces.

Rebels fighting against Qaddafi’s government are discussing whether to ask for United Nations airstrikes, the New York Times reported, citing unidentified people with knowledge of the deliberations. The rebel council isn’t seeking “foreign intervention,” the newspaper said.

The best option for countries seeking to oust Qaddafi may be to emulate his strategy of backing individuals not institutions, said Barak Seener, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies in London.

That would involve an effort “to engage with specific military and tribal leaders that are openly opposed to Qaddafi by offering them financial incentives, weapons and logistical support,” he said. “The same way that Qaddafi did to secure their support throughout the decades.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Vivian Salama at  vsalama@bloomberg.net;

Egyptians Return to Cairo’s Tahrir Square to Underline Protests

By Vivian Salama and Maram Mazen

Bloomberg (Click here for original story)

CAIRO – Tens of thousands of Egyptians gathered in central Cairo today to reassert demands for change, one week after street protests led to the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak, fueling similar demonstrations throughout the Middle East.

Salesmen offered souvenir t-shirts commemorating the protests that started on Jan. 25 to the crowds who packed into Tahrir square. Some carried photographs of people killed during the unrest and others followed regular Friday religious ceremonies with prayers for the dead.

Photo by Vivian Salama

The Health Ministry said yesterday that 365 people were killed during the demonstrations. The Egyptian army on Feb. 13 dissolved parliament and suspended the constitution, meeting demands made by the opposition movement that forced Mubarak from office two days earlier, and said it will rule Egypt until elections are held.

“I’m sure our demands will be met, but it’s better that we all come together again to show them that we’re serious,” said Mahmoud el Hady, a 23-year-old commerce student at Benha University, north of Cairo, who was wrapped in a red, white and black Egyptian flag. “Some people need to go from the old regime. We need to dismantle the national security forces.”

Demonstrations continued today in Bahrain, where people called for democracy and the fall of the government during a funeral procession for two men killed by security forces.

The dissent in Bahrain, home to the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, follows the toppling of autocratic rulers by popular movements in Egypt and Tunisia and marks the spread of dissent into thePersian Gulf, where most of the Middle East’s oil is produced.

Libya, Yemen

The past week has also seen anti-government protests and clashes in Libya, Africa’s biggest holder of crude oil reserves, and Yemen, a producer of liquefied natural gas. Brent crude futures this week rose to the highest level since 2008.

The Egyptian Exchange has been closed since Jan. 27 after the biggest stock selloff in more than two years.

“We want the army to rule temporarily and then never to rule us again,” said Ali Bassam, 45, a physical education teacher. “We want anyone chosen by Hosni Mubarak to leave his position. This country has been a big prison for 30 years.”

Mubarak Divides Egypt Opposition to Retain Hold on Power as Protests Fade

By Vivian Salama and Glen Carey

Bloomberg (click here for original story)

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who may have won concessions yesterday allowing him to serve the rest of his mandate, did so with the same tactics that kept him in office since 1981: Divide and conquer the opposition.

“The regime is really good at what it does,” said Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center. “It’s very good at dividing the opposition. That’s its skill and we’ve been seeing it for 30 years.”

Vice President Omar Suleiman and opposition groups agreed to conclude studying constitutional amendments by the first week of March and form a committee to oversee progress, according to a statement distributed in Cairo yesterday.

The opposition, which ranges from the Muslim Brotherhood, to the socialist Tagammu party, may struggle to gain a foothold in Egypt’s political system as years of government marginalization and internal divisions weakened them. The Wafd party, billionaire Naguib Sawiris and some representatives of the country’s youth also attended the meeting.

Concern that turmoil in Egypt would spread sent the Dubai Financial Market General Index down 4.3 percent on Jan. 30. Since then, the measure has recovered and was little changed today at 1,605.72 at 12:48 p.m. The cost of insuring Egypt’s debt for five years with credit-default swaps closed at 380 basis points on Feb. 4 after hitting 430 on Jan. 28, the highest since April 2009, CMA prices in London show.

‘Gaining Momentum’

Mubarak appointed Suleiman on Jan. 29, his first vice president since he came to power. Mubarak’s declaration Feb. 1 that he will step down later this year failed to appease protesters who want him to quit immediately, and prompted a call from President Barack Obama for the transition to “begin now.” Mubarak said he’ll stay on to ensure “stability.”

The protests, which grew from Jan. 25 to Feb. 1, were shaken on Feb. 2 after the army didn’t move to prevent Mubarak supporters from battling demonstrators, some of them charging into Tahrir Square on horseback. The two sides spent the next two days hurling rocks, bottles and concrete chunks at each other. About 300 people have died in the clashes, according to the United Nations.

Police last year detained hundreds of supporters campaigning for the Muslim Brotherhood in the run-up to a parliamentary election, in what the movement said was part of an effort to drive it out of politics. The Brotherhood said Nov. 22 that police had detained more than 1,200 of its supporters.

“Suleiman is gaining political momentum and enjoys a clear advantage in terms of his ability to negotiate favorable terms,” Hani Sabra, a Middle East analyst at Eurasia Group in New York, said in a note to clients. He’s “already been successful in splitting off the soft Mubarak opponents.”

Armchair Interview

Sabra said Suleiman’s Feb. 3 interview with Egyptian state television, in which he sat in an armchair and said he had heard the protesters demands, may have led some to believe the government is serious about making changes.

“The protesters are amorphous,” Sabra said. “Suleiman is pursuing a divide-and-conquer strategy.”

In the same Feb. 3 address, Suleiman split the opposition by saying that talks would be held with willing parties and not the Muslim Brotherhood because of its reluctance to negotiate. The group later changed its stance and attended the talks.

Fragmented Opposition

Photo by Vivian Salama

Diluting the opposition’s influence are the many voices with which it speaks. On some occasions, the same party has held different views. Yesterday, for example, Mohamed Saad El- Katatni, a member of Muslim Brotherhood’s top executive body, said keeping Mubarak in power while changes are made is a “safer option” to win implementation.

Three hours later, Mohammed Morsey, another spokesman for the Muslim Brotherhood, said they still wanted Mubarak gone. “We’re in the field, and we’re in the dialogue, there’s no contradiction,” he said.

Youth organizations, including a group called the April 6, initiated the original Jan. 25 demonstration that started the uprising. The speed with which the rally grew in size blurred party lines so that no single group speaks for the all.

“The opposition is fragmented,” said Abdulkhaleq Abdullah, a professor of politics at the United Arab Emirates University in Al Ain. “The opposition is not the one who speaks for the Y2K generation.”

The agreement forged yesterday may not represent some of those who packed into Tahrir Square for a 13th day of protests.

No Alternative

“We all insist that there is no alternative to Mubarak stepping down,” said Ahmed Maher, who led a group of youth gathering in the square. “Those meeting with the regime do not represent us and they cannot move the people.”

In the last presidential election in 2005, Mubarak won 88 percent of the votes. Ayman Nour, who ran a distant second, was jailed in December 2005 for four years on fraud charges.

Mohamed ElBaradei, 68, the Nobel Prize winner who formerly ran the UN’s nuclear watchdog agency, has emerged as a surprise face of the opposition. Still, having spent most of his adult life outside of the country, he has none of the organizational structure that other groups have.

“The opposition’s weakness was greatly caused by their inability to be united,” said Samer S. Shehata, assistant professor of Arab politics at Georgetown University in Washington. “The only thing that united them is that Mubarak must leave. Once they abandon that they risk basic goals that they want to realize.”

 

Muslim Brotherhood Measuring Political Possibilities in Post-Mubarak Egypt

By Vivian Salama, Dahlia Kholaif and Caroline Alexander

Bloomberg (Click here for original story)

Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood didn’t immediately join the spontaneous street demonstrations against President Hosni Mubarak. Now the Islamist group, the country’s largest opposition faction, is positioning itself to help shape the country’s political future.

The Brotherhood waited a few days after the uprising began and then publicly supported the protesters, saying it shared their goals: an end to Mubarak’s 30-year rule, a new constitution, open elections and a new all-party government. Mubarak’s Feb. 1 announcement that he won’t seek another presidential term may allow the Brotherhood, brimming with grassroots skills, to take advantage.

Photo by Vivian Salama

“They are the most organized and most popular, with a hierarchy in Egypt in terms of membership and leadership,” said Omar Ashour, an Egyptian lecturer on Arab politics at the University of Exeter in England. “In the post-Mubarak period, they may have a role,” even though “their involvement right now isn’t major.”

Founded in 1928, the same year Mubarak was born, the Muslim Brotherhood has influenced Islamist movements across the globe, including Hamas in the Palestinian territories, which the U.S., European Union and Israel consider a terrorist organization. As conditions change in the Arab world’s most populous country, the group may have to allay concerns about the role it will play. The Brotherhood is banned from politics in Egypt, and members have had to run for office as independents.

Equal Rights

Essam al-Erian, a senior Brotherhood leader who was arrested several times under Mubarak, says the opposition is united. The Brotherhood is working with “liberals, secularists, communists and every section” to ensure “the transition from a tyrannical corrupt regime to a civil democracy that guarantees equal rights to all,” he said in a telephone interview from Cairo.

“The Muslim Brotherhood is part of Egypt’s people, and we acquiesce in the verdict of the people, whatever it may be,” al-Erian said, adding that the group seeks “a democratic regime with the Islamic Sharia as a reference,” which he said already is enshrined in Egypt’s constitution. Sharia is based principally on laws from the Koran, sayings by the Prophet Mohammed and the opinions of Muslim scholars, and it’s the basis of some areas of Egyptian law though not the penal code.

That stance may conflict with other vested interests. Egypt’s military leadership is committed to the foreign policy pursued by Mubarak, who has helped Israel blockade the Hamas- ruled Gaza Strip and sought to rally Arab support against Islamic extremism.

Democratic Process

While President Barack Obama’s administration has reached out to a range of Egyptian contacts since the uprising began, it isn’t talking to the Brotherhood, State Department spokesman Philip J. Crowley said Jan. 31 when asked at a press briefing how America would view its involvement in a future government. Any group that wants to play a role must be “committed to nonviolence” and “respect a democratic process,” he said.

U.S. foreign-policy experts and former diplomats are evaluating America’s position as they gauge how the strife in Egypt might spread across the Arab world. Protests continued early this morning in Cairo, as demonstrators who demand Mubarak’s ouster clashed with supporters of the president’s regime, hurling rocks at each other in Tahrir Square.

Anti-government turmoil already has spilled over into neighboring Jordan, where King Abdullahon Feb. 1 sacked his prime minister. Yemen President Ali Abdullah Saleh said yesterday he’ll step down when his term ends in 2013, and protesters in Algeria have been killed in clashes with security forces.

Photo by Vivian Salama

‘Calamitous’ for Security

The Brotherhood “would be calamitous for U.S. security,” Leslie Gelb, president emeritus of the Council of Foreign Relations in New York and a former U.S. assistant secretary of state, wrote Jan. 29 on the Daily Beast website. The group opposes the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty of 1979 and “would endanger counterterrorism efforts in the region and worldwide,” he said. “That is a very big deal.”

It “supports Hamas and other terrorist groups, makes friendly noises to Iranian dictators and torturers,” and would be “uncertain landlords of the critical Suez Canal,” he added.

The canal carries about 8 percent of global maritime trade. Crude-oil prices have risen more than 5 percent since the protests began Jan. 25 on concern that the turmoil in Egypt may disrupt supply.

The Brotherhood is “committed to all international agreements and treaties at this phase,” Mohamed al-Beltagy, a senior leader of the group, said in a phone interview. “Later, it should be left to the people to decide.”

Hijack Rebellion

The idea that the Brotherhood could hijack the anti-Mubarak rebellion has been dismissed byMohamed ElBaradei, the former United Nations atomic agency chief and one of the opposition movement’s leaders. Mubarak stoked such fears to perpetuate U.S. support, ElBaradei told ABC News on Jan. 31.

“This is what the regime sold to the U.S. and the West: It’s either us and repression, or al-Qaeda type extremist groups,” ElBaradei said of the Brotherhood, describing the group as religiously conservative and nonviolent. “You have to include them.”

International companies including Amsterdam-based brewer Heineken NV, which bought Egypt’s Al Ahram Beverages Co. for $287 million in 2002, have halted operations in the country or pulled expatriate staff since the protests began. As the turmoil continued yesterday, businesses were trying to forecast the future and the likelihood of a government with Islamist influence.

‘Less Friendly’

Such a government may pursue “economic policies which cater more to social welfare but are less friendly to foreign investment from the West and business in general,” London-based risk consultant Maplecroft said in report this week.

The Brotherhood’s history fuels the concern. While its radical wing was accused of trying to assassinate Gamal Abdel Nasser, a former president, in 1954, the group has been a persistent critic of the Mubarak regime for decades without pursuing violence.

It has survived widespread jailings of its leadership over the years to emerge as the main opposition in parliament after 2005, when it won about one-fifth of parliamentary seats by running candidates as independents. It lost ground last year when the government disqualified a quarter of its candidates from the November elections.

Broader Appeal

The Brotherhood has sought to avoid being identified as a religious movement and to broaden its appeal. Its former Supreme Guide, Mahdi Akef, instructed members in 2005 not to brandish the Koran at anti-government protests, saying that would undermine their politicking. Still the Brotherhood raised objections from other opposition groups, and dissent within its own ranks, when it proposed in 2007 that women and non-Muslims shouldn’t be eligible for the presidency.

It has fostered social and health programs for Egypt’s poor that, in turn, have helped its political prospects. The social- service model has been followed by other Islamist groups in the region with varying success.

“One could quite easily see the Muslim Brotherhood picking up 20 to 25 percent of the vote” in a free election, said Paul Rogers, a specialist in international security at Bradford University inEngland.

While the group is conservative, its brand of Islam isn’t “puritanical,” and “the idea that we are going to get an Islamic revolution in Egypt like in Iran is very unlikely, just nuts,” Rogers said.

Political Impulses

Michele Dunne, who tracks the evolving political situation in Egypt for the Carnegie Endowmentin Washington, said differences between Hamas and the Brotherhood, and their political impulses, have to be explored.

“They founded Hamas. There is a relationship,” she said of the Brotherhood. “The big difference is Hamas has used violence and arms to pursue its goals. And the Brotherhood hasn’t used violence in 40 years.”

Dunne said the U.S. likely will have to reconcile itself with whatever transpires.

“At this point, it’s irrelevant what we think about the Brotherhood. Things are moving very fast in Egypt,” she said. “If the political leadership opens up, the Brotherhood will be there.”

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RELATED STORIES WRITTEN BY ME:

Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood Plans to Establish Official Party – by Mariam Fam and Vivian Salama

Mubarak Orders Egyptian Army to Aid Police as Protests Against Rule Widen – by Vivian Salama, Ola Galal and Caroline Alexander